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Optimal Allocation of Variable Renewable Energy Considering Contributions to Security of Supply

Jakob Peter and Johannes Wagner

Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by generation based on wind and solar energy with a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. Consequently, considering power system reliability, their capacity value, i.e. their contribution to system adequacy, gains importance. Based on probabilistic reliability metrics, this paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value of variable renewable energy generators in large-scale optimization models for electricity markets, which accounts for balancing effects due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and system effects via interconnectors. We show the practical applicability of the methodology based on an application for wind power in the European electricity market. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system (13 \%). Analyses which do not account for the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore overestimate the required back-up capacities in electricity systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources.